Creating jobs for millions of unemployed young Africans is the way out of fragility

According to the United Nations, nearly half of the world’s 1.1 billion poor live in conflict-affected settings.¹ The World Bank predicts that nearly 60% of the world’s extreme poor will live in fragile and conflict-affected situations by 2030.²

According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, fragility is “the combination of exposure to risk and insufficient coping capacities of the state, system, and/or communities to manage, absorb, or mitigate those risks.”³

In Africa, various dimensions of fragility—economic, political, climate-related, and capacity-based—are evident and deeply interwoven.

Economically, many of the continent’s key sectors were severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, which pushed 23 million Africans into extreme poverty in 2020.⁴ Recent conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have further complicated the macroeconomic situation in subSaharan African countries.⁵

Politics has also caused disruptions across much of Africa. Between August 2020 and August 2023, the continent recorded seven coups d’état, causing severe economic and social consequences.⁶ Looking closely at their specific contexts, we can observe some trade-offs between security spending and social spending. For example, according to International Monetary Fund estimates, security spending in the Sahel countries (except Mauritania) averaged 3.9% of GDP in 2022, which corresponded to an average of 25% of their tax revenues excluding grants.⁷ Security spending has stretched budgets thin, leaving other priorities without sufficient funds.

Climate-fueled disasters are becoming commonplace, resulting in an increase in migration and strained government budgets.⁸ African countries are disproportionately affected by global warming, despite contributing the least to climate change. Without climate change adaptation measures, 86 million Africans could migrate internally, with an estimate that climate change will cost African countries $50 billion per year by 2050.⁹

Capacity issues have been exacerbated by the economic and security shocks across Africa. As a matter of social contract, the state is expected to provide the necessary safety and other basic services for its citizens. The Maslow Pyramid, a psychological theory of human needs, places physiological need at the base, immediately followed by safety and security needs.¹⁰ When states are fragile, citizens become more vulnerable, which feeds into a vicious cycle where governments are challenged to effectively implement policies for structural change to cope with external shocks, debt crises, climate change, or natural disasters without the capacity to do so effectively.

These dynamics are not without consequences. Social unrest due to power cuts, rising prices, and tax reforms highlights the erosion of social cohesion. Addressing these challenges requires a multidimensional and systemic approach, integrating economic development, governance reform, and climate resilience. To rise to this challenge, African nations should consider the following recommendations:

1. Role of governments: More people-centric and inclusive policies focusing on youth and women are needed. These are critical to successfully address people’s vulnerabilities and strengthen the rule of law. Governments should utilize their growing youth population in addressing these issues given the growing rate of youth across the continent.¹¹ Including women in the creation and implementation of such policies will ensure that policy recommendations are tailored to the needs of the most vulnerable citizens.
2. Role of the private sector: The African working-age population is expected to be roughly 450 million by 2035. Without appropriate reforms, the continent will only be able to create 100 million jobs for these millions of young people.¹² Strengthening public institutions to create a conducive environment for private investment is essential. Public-private partnerships can drive job creation and economic diversification, particularly in countries experiencing fragility, conflict, and violence (FCVs).
3. Role of the United Nations: Of the 44 Least Developed Countries (LDCs), 33 are in Africa, highlighting the continent’s distinct challenges and opportunities for advancing sustainable development. Recognizing LDCs as the most vulnerable nations globally, the United Nations established the Office of the High Representative for the Least Developed Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries, and Small Island Developing States to advocate for their needs and drive solutions to their development challenges.¹³ The implementation of the Doha Programme of Action for the LDCs (DPOA) serves as a comprehensive framework with specific targets, commitments, and deliverables to support these nations in six issue areas associated with fragility: investing in people to eradicate poverty and building capacity, leveraging innovation to achieve the SDGs, supporting structural transformation, enhancing international trade, addressing climate change, and mobilizing global partnerships.¹⁴
4. Efficiency is essential: For the social contract to yield results, it will be critical to develop service delivery mechanisms that will be more agile. Institutions will need to consider speed of delivery, scale of resources, and impact of proposed solutions. A key discussion during the International Development Association’s 21st replenishment process (IDA21) will be streamlining its operations by cutting the number of required metrics from 1,011 (the number used for IDA20) to under 500 (to be used for IDA21).¹⁵
5. Increased concessional financing for countries in fragile situations: A comparison of investments needed for mitigation and adaptation by 2030 and net official development assistance received in recent years shows the extent of the financing gap of four FCV countries in the Sahel. According to the Country Climate and Development report of the G5 Sahel (Figure 32) countries, without appropriate financing, 13.5 million people will be in extreme poverty by 2050 due to climate change-related shocks.¹⁶ To address these development challenges, fragile countries need predictable and long-term financial resources more than ever.

The cost of inaction for countries remaining in fragile situations will be very high for the international community. The recent migration crises and global pandemic highlight some of the costs of inaction.

Conclusion

Creating jobs for millions of unemployed youths in Africa, strengthening governance, and fostering international collaboration are critical to breaking the cycle of fragility. Integrated approaches, such as those outlined in the DPOA and supported by initiatives from the World Bank, other international financial institutions, and multilateral development banks provide a pathway for opportunities and growth.